How Long Will $1 Million Last in Retirement?

One million dollars feels like a landmark. In retirement planning it is — but the honest answer to "how long will it last?" is "it depends," and that's not a dodge. The spread between a well-managed $1M portfolio and a poorly managed one is ten years or more of longevity. Here's where that spread comes from.

The baseline: what the 4% rule says

The standard starting point is the 4% guideline, distilled from the Trinity Study's analysis of U.S. portfolio returns across every rolling 30-year window since 1926. Applied to $1 million, the math is simple:

• $40,000/year ($3,333/month), increased annually for inflation
• 95%+ historical success rate over 30-year periods with a 60/40 stock/bond allocation

Morningstar's 2026 State of Retirement Income report moved the recommended rate to 3.9%, reflecting modestly lower expected forward returns from current valuations. That's $39,000/year — a $1,000/year difference that matters at the margin but shouldn't dominate your planning.

The more important variable is how many years "retirement" covers. The 4% guideline was designed for a 30-year window. Retire at 55 and you need 40 years — a different problem.

The longevity table

Withdrawal Rate	Annual Draw	Monthly Draw	Estimated Portfolio Life
3.0%	$30,000	$2,500	40+ years (likely indefinite)
3.5%	$35,000	$2,917	35–40 years
4.0%	$40,000	$3,333	28–32 years
4.5%	$45,000	$3,750	24–28 years
5.0%	$50,000	$4,167	20–23 years
6.0%	$60,000	$5,000	16–18 years

Assumes 60/40 portfolio, historical return distribution, ~3% average inflation. These are median outcomes across historical start dates — some windows fared better, some worse. Run your own timeline and asset allocation.

The age at retirement is the variable most people underweight when they read this table. At 62 with a 30-year horizon to 92, the 4% rate sits in its design zone. At 55 with a 40-year horizon, 4% becomes borderline, and 3.5% is a more defensible starting point. The decade you retire in shapes the answer as much as the number in your portfolio.

What $40,000/year actually covers — and what it doesn't need to

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey put average spending for U.S. households aged 65+ at roughly $61,400/year in 2025 — about $5,100/month. At first read, $40,000/year looks $1,800/month short.

That apparent shortfall dissolves once you remember that portfolio withdrawals were never supposed to be the whole income. Social Security is the other column in the budget.

The average Social Security retirement benefit in 2026 runs about $2,071/month ($24,852/year). Consider a hypothetical couple — call them Dale and Pat, both retired, both with average earnings histories. Their combined benefits might run $3,800–$4,200/month. Layer that on top of a 4% portfolio draw:

• $3,333/month from $1M at 4% + $3,900/month (two average SS benefits) = $7,233/month

That's a comfortable household income even by pre-retirement standards. The $1M alone question is almost always the wrong question.

The more useful version: how long does the portfolio need to carry the full load before Social Security starts? If Dale retires at 62 and plans to delay claiming to 67, the portfolio funds five years of full spending before any SS income arrives. Delay to 70 — when the benefit is 32% higher than at 67 and 77% higher than at 62 — and the portfolio works harder early but substantially less afterward. For most people with decent health, the delay wins. Run the break-even math against Dale and Pat's actual benefit estimates using the Social Security claiming calculator.

The tax picture is better than most people expect

A $1M retiree drawing from a mixed portfolio faces a surprisingly light federal tax bill in 2026.

Take a hypothetical single retiree, Marta, drawing $40,000/year from a traditional IRA before Social Security starts. Her 2026 federal income tax:

• Standard deduction for single filer, age 65+: $18,150 ($16,100 base + $2,050 extra for age)
• Taxable income: $40,000 − $18,150 = $21,850
• Tax owed: roughly $2,300 — the first $11,925 in the 10% bracket, the rest at 12%
• Effective federal rate: about 5.7%

If part of that $40,000 comes from Roth distributions or long-term capital gains from a taxable account, the effective rate drops further. Long-term gains are taxed at 0% federally up to $49,450 of taxable income for single filers in 2026 ($98,900 for married couples filing jointly). A portfolio designed to take advantage of that bracket is genuinely tax-efficient in a way that's impossible to replicate during working years.

There's a catch that matters more for Marta ten years in: Required Minimum Distributions. Under SECURE 2.0, the first RMD is required at age 73 (or 75, for anyone born in 1960 or later). If Marta's entire $1M sits in a traditional IRA, those mandatory withdrawals will be ordinary income whether she needs the money or not. At some point they push her into higher brackets, trigger IRMAA Medicare surcharges, and increase the taxable portion of her Social Security income.

The solution is Roth conversions during the low-income years before RMDs begin — converting traditional IRA dollars to Roth while Marta's marginal rate is still 12% or 22%, avoiding the forced income later. Every dollar converted now is a dollar that won't be mandatory-distributed at a higher rate in her 70s and 80s. The optimal conversion amount each year is a bracket-filling exercise, and it changes once Social Security starts. Granary models this sequencing against your actual account balances and tax situation.

The risk that averages hide

Two hypothetical retirees — call them Kim and Jordan — both start 2020 with exactly $1M and both draw $40,000/year. Both experience the same average annual return over 30 years: 7%. Same portfolio, same withdrawals, same average. Different outcomes.

Kim retires at the start of a strong bull run. The portfolio grows enough in years one through five that the base is large and durable even when flat years arrive later.

Jordan retires two years later into a 30% drawdown. Selling at the bottom to cover living expenses depletes units of ownership when prices are low. The portfolio never fully recovers because there's less of it compounding once prices recover.

This is sequence-of-returns risk, and it's the most underappreciated variable in retirement math. The first five years of withdrawals matter more to portfolio survival than years 20–25. Practical defenses:

1. Cash buffer: 12–18 months of spending in cash, money market, or short bonds at retirement. Avoids forced equity sales during downturns.
2. Flexible spending: Cutting withdrawals 5–10% in a bad year — skipping a vacation, deferring a car purchase — buys years of additional portfolio life.
3. Floor income: Delay Social Security to build a guaranteed income floor that requires no equity sales regardless of market conditions. A larger check starting at 70 versus 62 effectively plays the role of a bond ladder.

None of these are exotic. What's exotic is thinking the 30-year average return tells the whole story.

The ACA wrinkle: the cliff retirees before 65 don't see coming

If you retire before Medicare eligibility at 65, you'll shop for insurance on the ACA marketplace — and income management becomes material. In 2026, the 400% Federal Poverty Level subsidy cliff is back. A single person earning above roughly $62,600 in MAGI loses all premium tax credits.

At $40,000 in IRA withdrawals, Marta clears that threshold easily and still qualifies for subsidies. But Roth conversions — dollars moved from traditional to Roth — count dollar-for-dollar toward MAGI. If Marta does a $25,000 conversion on top of $40,000 in living expenses, her MAGI is $65,000, she crosses the cliff, and her marketplace premium jumps. Depending on her age and plan, that could cost $8,000–$15,000 more per year in premiums.

The ACA cliff doesn't prevent Roth conversions — it limits their size before Medicare kicks in. Calibrating the conversion amount to stay under $62,600 while also managing future RMDs is the kind of multi-year coordination that earns its modeling time. The when-can-i-retire planner accounts for MAGI across Social Security, RMDs, and conversions together.

The honest summary

At 4%, a $1 million portfolio reliably funds 28–32 years of inflation-adjusted spending. Layered on top of Social Security, it supports a comfortable retirement for most people who retire in their 60s.

What actually threatens that outcome is not the withdrawal rate. It's:

• Spending above the rate without monitoring
• A bad market in the first five years without a cash buffer
• A large traditional IRA generating unexpected RMDs
• A Roth conversion that accidentally crosses the ACA cliff before Medicare

The $1M question is rarely "is this enough?" More often it's "which of these four dynamics will I trip over, and what is the plan?"

This post is planning education, not personalized tax or investment advice. Consult a fee-only financial planner before making decisions about withdrawal sequencing, Social Security timing, or Roth conversions.